Power of projections

Power of projections

Climate change projections to assess coastal defence requirements:

Cornwall is famous for its dramatic coastline and captivating coastal towns that provide services to local people and tourists. Tourism in Cornwall is worth 25% of the economy. Its coastline must be protected effectively and the level of investment depends on climate model projections.

Climate change?  

The 2014 IPCC report predicts European counties will experience increased economic losses from  coastal flooding from increased storm activity and rising sea levels (by 2080 total sea level rise may exceed 1m and 2m cannot be excluded). These factors focus wave energy closer to the shore and cliff faces, triggering increased rates of erosion and storm surge events that will intensify the extent of coastal flooding.

Cornwall council understands the importance of climate change. Being a peninsular extending into the Atlantic Ocean which produces more consistent waves than any other ocean, Cornwall is vulnerable to climate impacts including erosion and flooding. Many different types of flood defence have been employed including seawalls, breakwaters and groynes.

Climate projections for Cornwall

Future Projections:

• Sea-level rise of one metre (potentially up to two metres)
• Increased winter storm frequency
• Increased coastal flooding
• Increased temperatures
• Increased winter precipitation, particularly northern and western coastlines
• Increased coastal erosion rates and sediment distribution

Managing climate change

Based on the projections and importance of these models, Cornwall has setup the maritime strategy and Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Shoreline Management Plan (SMP2) to ensure successful coastline management. These plans detail management strategies to protect the Cornish coastline prioritising resource allocation, Figure 1.

Figure 1: Policy Options

Each policy will be used on a case by case basis, figure 2 shows how they will be implemented around the Cornish coastline.

Figure 2: Shoreline management policies UK and Cornwall

Each vulnerable location around the Cornwall coastline has an assessment of the risks that apply. As a result of predicted climate change, these areas have individual plans based on the cost benefit analysis, figure 3.

Figure 3: Location examples

Climate projections have enabled long term plans to be developed for Cornwall’s coastal defences reinforcing the need to understand climate change to minimise the impact on coastal communities. Cornwall’s coastline is highly vulnerable to erosion and flooding and must be preserved in order to maintain the beauty of the Cornish landscape for locals and tourists.

Can Cornwall Go Green?

Cornwall’s capacity to generate renewable energy using sources such as solar, wind, land heat (geothermal) and tidal is high in compared with other parts of the UK, see figure 1.

Solar	Wind	Land Heat	Tidal
Up to 1100 kWh/m2	Up to 15-20 knots	Up to 120 mW/m2	>100 kW/m

Figure 1: UK potential energy

A clear sign of arrival in Cornwall is the scattering of solar panels and wind turbines across the countryside. Figures 2 and 3 show current solar and wind farm locations.

Figure 2: Solar Power

Figure 3: Wind turbines

Cornwall’s energy supply?

In December 2017, Cornwall’s renewables capacity of 700.859 megawatts was primarily from 541.502 megawatts solar and 141.727 megawatts wind, Figure 4.

Figure 4: Renewable Energy

The 2009 UK Renewable Energy Strategy targeted 15% energy production from renewable and low carbon sources by 2020. Cornwall already exceeds this target. Renewable sources cover all domestic electricity needs up until 2030 projections, heating needs are not covered during this period, figure 5.

Figure 5: Energy breakdown

Future trends

Cornwall’s energy cabinet has announced the future energy scheme targets including:

• Reducing fuel poverty to 5% (currently just under 15%)
• 100% of Cornwall’s electricity from renewable and low carbon sources
• 30% of Cornwall’s energy ‘spend’ retained within local economy
• 50% of Cornwall’s energy owned locally
• 20% Fuel bill reduction
• Create 4,000 jobs

Cornwall’s future

Increasing renewable energy generation by extending wind and solar energy could damage the landscape. Precious high-grade agricultural land could allow increased biomass. Governmental or local regulation could be used to reduce energy consumption. These methods would have the desired effect but have some drawbacks. Another approach is a wide-ranging re-assessment of energy generation and usage. The SEAP (Sustainable Energy Action Plan), projects 1.049m tonnes of CO₂e savings per year by 2020.

Increasing renewables:

The difficulty with renewable electricity is generating electricity when it is needed or storing energy until it is required. It is hard to distribute energy for heating, as it has to be generated where it is used. As a solution Centrica and National grid have created a mini-network in Cornwall that can generate and store its own power. A combined heat and power system captures heat from electricity generation using it for heating and uses batteries to store power.

The future has to be a mixed model combining many different types of green energy, figure 6.

Wind energy	Solar Farms	Geothermal
Anaerobic digestion	Marine renewable	Tidal Energy

Figure 6: Renewable energy options

Reducing consumption

Different options to reduce energy consumption include:

• Green transport schemes
• Reduced road building, limiting transport growth
• Electric vehicles
• Responsible car use
• More local services (health, education, shops)
• Improved public transport
• Superfast broadband, remote working
• Improved electrical appliance energy efficiency
• Better building efficiency

Into the future, for Cornwall to increase its proportion of low carbon and renewable energy it needs a multi strand approach increasing renewable energy generation whilst reducing consumption.

 

 

Climate Change for Cornwall

Being a geography student in Penryn Cornwall is allowing me to understand the changing world and threats to our society. This blog will attempt to scale down world problems allowing us to develop a contextual understanding into the direct effects of climate change. Being a keen surfer and photographer allows me to see the beauty of the natural environment available in Cornwall. This blog has been created to show the change humans are having on the cornish landscape understanding how national policies, global corporations and more effect us in our localities.

Helping to understand the changing world where you live — Tom Hales

Electric revolution?

July 2017 was a month of change for the future of UK transport with legislation banning sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles after 2040 coupled with new taxes on diesel drivers by 2020.

Legislation Targets 

• Replace petrol and diesel vehicles with electric or hybrids by 2050
• Reduce transport related emissions
• Tackle 40,000 premature deaths from emissions

Problems with the plans 

Current UK electricity production is not sustainable. Electric and hybrid vehicles rely predominately on fossil fuel for recharging. In quarter 3, 2016 UK achieved 50% low carbon power generation, see figure 1. This shows the scale of the challenge to achieve low carbon electricity production. The UK government aims to meet its EU target of generating 30% electricity from renewable sources by 2020. There is no final date for carbon free electricity. Even in 2040 electric cars could still be charged using electricity partly generated from fossil fuels.

Figure 1: Showing the distribution of UK energy sources

Increasing electric vehicles will create extra demand on the national grid particularly during peak periods (e.g. evenings). This requirement has been exaggerated by the media quoting “10 new power stations” an estimated 30 gigawatt increase in electricity (double the peak watt requirements) would be required to sustain this transport. However, the national grid projects a 5 GW rise at peak times.

Current environmental impacts 

Transport is UK’s largest emitting sector (2016 at 26%) electric cars could solve the problem but need twice the energy during manufacture as a conventional car because of the raw materials and energy required to produce lithium-ion batteries. Currently, electric cars will emit less CO2 emissions than petrol cars, or more than diesel cars if they are charged using electricity from non-renewable sources. Green electricity allows electric vehicles to emit a sixth of the emissions compared to a petrol.

What about Cornwall?

Anyone who lives in or has visited Cornwall will have experienced difficulty getting around the county. Transport issues arise from the remote population density and number of rural towns and villages. Most jobs and services are located in key hubs. Good transport networks are vital for the economy and daily life. In 2012, Cornwall’s average GDP was £17,201 meaning much of Cornwall is deprived, illustrated in figure 2.

Figure 2: Deprivation map

Only major Cornish towns and cities have areas where people live without car access. Figure 3 is a map of car ownership across Cornwall highlighting the rural distribution problem.

Figure 3: Car distribution

Tourism:

Cornwall’s tourism industry is responsible for 25% of employment (60,921 jobs in 2012). The new legislation will impact visitor numbers; current electric cars with limited ranges could lead to tourists visiting closer destinations. A charging revolution is needed to support local and visitor charging demands. The current insufficient level of charging points installed are illustrated in figure 4.

Figure 4: Current charging points

The policy will increase vehicle costs, making it difficult for locals to afford cars that meet the legislation. Tourists and rural owners of electric cars will struggle with the limited range. Figure 5 compares like-for-like petrol and electric cars showing a £14,500 cost penalty and 462-mile range deficit for the electric car.

Golf S	E-Golf
Diesel	Electric
Prices from: £18,230	Prices from: £32,730
Range: 648 miles	Range: 186 miles

 

The new legislation will impact life in Cornwall, creating an opportunity to reduce environmental pollution. To be successful electric cars need to evolve, with reduced purchase costs and increased range. Remember this will be in vain if the electricity supply used for charging the vehicles remains non-renewable. The next blog will assess the green credentials of Cornwall’s electricity supply.